Weekly Economic Update: September 15th, 2026

Inflation rose in August — will rates follow?

To pretty much no one’s surprise, inflation ticked back up in August, mostly due to the higher price of oil this summer. Producer prices were the first to be reported this week, and those moved up 0.4% in August.¹ Likewise, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed suit on Friday, also moving up 0.4% for an inflation rate of 3.4% over the last year.²

The readings pretty much sealed the deal for the Federal Reserve to hike rates at their meeting this coming week, with analysts forecasting a 90.1% chance of an increase of 25 basis points.³ However, the Treasury tried one more last-gasp measure to avoid a rate hike, undertaking a $6 billion buyback. Instead of bringing yields down, it had the opposite effect: The bond market pushed rates higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield moving up to 4.97%.⁴

It makes for an interesting setup for the Fed meeting. President Donald Trump believes the U.S. should have the world’s lowest interest rate, and he specifically chose Kevin Warsh to be Fed chair because he thought Warsh would make it happen.⁵ But Warsh is faced with the indisputable fact that inflation isn’t going away and the Fed needs to get in front of it, stat.

As mentioned earlier, oil was the primary culprit for the higher inflation — and there’s just no relief in sight on that front. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil pushed back over $100 per barrel last week, while Brent crude briefly crested $107 per barrel for the first time since May.^6,7 The Iran conflict was once again the reason for the higher prices at the pump, especially after President Trump said last week he wasn’t looking for a deal with Iran.⁸

President Trump also said he doesn’t expect oil prices to fall until after the November midterms, an interesting comment given that Americans are feeling the pinch at the pump and affordability is a hot topic for midterm elections.⁹

Coming this week

• The Fed meeting could be the big market driver this week, especially if they go outside expectations and don’t raise rates. Any big market moves could happen after Warsh’s post-meeting comments on Wednesday afternoon.
• No big data this week. The only item scheduled for release on Tuesday is the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
• Wednesday will feature retail sales, import prices and the NAHB Housing Market Index.
• On Thursday, we’ll get housing starts, pending home sales and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey. And, of course, the usual weekly jobless claims.
• Finally, Friday’s data will include industrial production, capacity utilization and leading indicators.

Sources:

¹ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sept. 10, 2026. “Producer Price Index News Release Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

² U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sept. 11, 2026. “Consumer Price Index Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

³ CME Group. “FedWatch.” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

⁴ CNBC. “U.S. 10 Year Treasury.” https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US.10. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

⁵ Ed Carson. Investor’s Business Daily. Sept. 13, 2026. “Trump Urges Federal Reserve To Cut Rates As Market Bets On Warsh Hike.” https://www.investors.com/news/trump-urges-federal-reserve-to-cut-rates-market-bets-warsh-hike/. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

⁶ Business Insider. “Oil (WTI).” https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

⁷ Trading Economics. “Brent oil.” https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

⁸ Steve Kopack. NBC News. Sept. 10, 2026. “Oil prices soar to $108 for the first time since May as bond yields jump.” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-iran-trump-hormuz-rcna596997. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

⁹ William A. Galston. Brookings. March 25, 2026. “Why affordability will be a key issue in the 2026 midterm elections.” https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-affordability-will-be-a-key-issue-in-the-2026-midterm-elections/. Accessed Sept. 13, 2026.

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