Weekly Economic Update: November 18th, 2025

The government reopens — what now?

After a record 43 days, there was finally enough momentum to end the government shutdown.¹ What did it accomplish? Depends on who you ask.

From the politicians, both sides claimed victory — but in the end, what was agreed to was basically the same deal that was on the table when the whole thing started. The rest of us normal folks didn’t understand why the government needed to be shut down and were unhappy with all the turmoil that resulted. Most of us were asking why our leaders were so dysfunctional in how they went about resolving this impasse.

All of this seemed to be politically motivated, and it was just one example of why congressional term limits are a good idea. People in power need to be regularly reminded that they work for us and that the people, not politics, come first and foremost.

The shutdown cost about $90 billion ($2+ billion per day in lost economic activity), resulting in a 1%-1.5% hit to fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) if you go by what the White House is putting out.² That lost amount might seem like small potatoes when you know that second-quarter GDP was at $30 trillion per year.³ But tell that to people with canceled flights and disrupted travel or those who count on government benefits and services to make ends meet or get things done. Was it really worth putting the country through the misery of this self-inflicted mess?

The government is now funded through the end of January 2026.⁴ After this fiasco, there will be a lot of apprehension as that January deadline approaches. For the moment, holiday travel and spending appear to be unaffected; hopefully, the holiday season stays jolly, because it looks like we could be on another collision course early in the new year.

Markets cheer reopening … briefly

Markets started the week roaring upward as they looked forward to the government shutdown ending. That anticipation culminated on Wednesday when the Dow hit a new record high.⁵ Then markets sold off just as quickly, as concerns mounted that the Federal Reserve would not cut short-term rates at its final meeting in December.⁶

With markets at or near record highs, it wasn’t a surprise that high-flying AI and technology stocks took it on the chin again.⁷ After initially continuing the decline, markets recovered by Friday, equalizing to end the week mixed but mostly flat.

The next few weeks will be significant for the markets, especially as we try to recover from the volatility caused by a lack of economic data due to the shutdown. The original thought was that previously withheld/non-tabulated and new data would create a flood of data, increasing volatility as markets digested all the new information.⁸ There is a chance the flood may instead be a trickle, as the White House press secretary stated all the skipped data might not be released.⁹ If it’s not, the markets could construe this lack of information as negative.

The funny thing is the shutdown (which is an anti-growth economic input), coupled with softer-than-expected inflation, should bolster the case for another cut in December. It’s hard to imagine that the additional data will be so positive that it will give the Fed cover to stay put and not cut rates. It should be a lively final month and a half as we close out 2025.

Coming this week

• Now that the government has reopened, data will begin to flow again, but it will be “chunky.” Markets may be more volatile than normal as the data flow smooths out.
• This week will be light from a data perspective, with no inflation or jobs information unless the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases reports they skipped in October.
• We’ll see MBA mortgage applications and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey on Wednesday, followed by weekly unemployment claims, existing home sales and U.S. leading indicators on Thursday. This week’s data will conclude with the final reading for consumer sentiment, which has been pretty weak.
• A plethora of Fed speakers will be making the rounds this week, sharing their opinions and outlooks based on who knows what since they don’t really have any data to work from.

Sources:

¹ Kevin Freking, Joey Cappelletti and Matt Brown. PBS. Nov. 13, 2025. “Trump signs government funding bill, ending record 43-day shutdown.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-signs-government-funding-bill-ending-record-43-day-shutdown. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

² Christopher Salas and Charlee Caudill. WVTM13. Nov. 14, 2025. “Capitol Hill, White House focus on affordability with new policy initiatives.” https://www.wvtm13.com/article/white-house-affordability-initiatives/69442056. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

³ Lucia Mutikani. Reuters. July 30, 2025. “US economic growth likely rebounded in Q2, but with weak underlying details.” https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-economic-growth-likely-rebounded-q2-with-weak-underlying-details-2025-07-30/. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

⁴ National Low Income Housing Coalition. Nov. 14, 2025. “Congress Passes and President Trump Signs into Law CR Funding Federal Program until January 30, Ending Record-Breaking 43-Day Government Shutdown – Take Action!” https://nlihc.org/resource/congress-passes-and-president-trump-signs-law-cr-funding-federal-programs-until-january-30. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

⁵ Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

⁶ CME Group. “FedWatch.” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

⁷ Eric Rosenbaum. CNBC. Nov. 16, 2025. “A simple reason why the market’s biggest investors say they aren’t worried about AI bubble, tech stock selling.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/16/ai-bubble-tech-stock-market-fear-why-big-private-investors-arent-worried.html. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

⁸ Alicia Wallace. CNN Business. Nov. 14, 2025. “The government is back open. Here’s what that means for economic data.” https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/14/economy/federal-data-what-to-expect-economic-data. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

⁹ Nick Niedzwiadek. Politico. Nov. 12, 2025. “October jobs data may never be released, White House says.” https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/12/white-house-shutdown-october-jobs-report-bls-00648420. Accessed Nov. 16, 2025.

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