Weekly Economic Update: March 3rd, 2026

Markets react to strikes on Iran

Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military operation targeting key Iranian leadership. Iran’s supreme leader, who had been in power since the late 1980s, was among those killed.

This is a significant geopolitical development, and it’s already having a short-term effect on markets. Some of the areas we’re watching include:

• Oil: This is the primary concern. Shipping companies have already stopped sending oil carriers through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of the global oil supply.¹ Oil prices, which were trading around $60 per barrel as recently as Feb. 13, were projected to climb to as much as $90 per barrel as markets processed the news.² However, the reaction has been somewhat more muted than expected, with crude oil trading around $70.50 per barrel by midday Monday.³
• Equities: The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 300 points in early Monday trading as oil prices spiked. However, the index had recovered most of its early losses by midday.⁴
• Supply chain disruption: Beyond oil, any broader regional conflict could impact global trade routes and supply chains, especially if the conflict is extended.
• Psychological impact: Consumer sentiment has already been shifting away from optimism and toward caution.⁵ The latest geopolitical events add another layer of uncertainty to an already unsettled backdrop.

Markets have weathered numerous geopolitical crises and rarely see long-term damage, although sticking to the long-term plan can be challenging when markets are unsettled. We’re monitoring developments closely and will communicate any recommended changes if the situation materially shifts. For now, patience and discipline serve investors better than reactive moves. Remember that markets often recover faster than our emotions do.

Sources:

¹ Sam Meredith. CNBC. March 2, 2026. “The Strait of Hormuz crisis explained: What it means for global shipping.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-us-iran-israel-war-shipping-trade-oil.html. Accessed March 2, 2026.

² Andrea Riquier. USA Today. March 1, 2026. “Oil prices likely to top $90 after Iran strikes, but retreat afterward.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/energy/2026/03/01/oil-prices-rise-after-iran-strikes/88934379007/. Accessed March 2, 2026.

³ Yahoo! Finance. “Crude Oil Apr 26 (CL=F).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/. Accessed March 2, 2026.

⁴ Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed March 2, 2026.

⁵ Trading Economics. “United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment.” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence. Accessed March 2, 2026.

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