Weekly Economic Update: November 24th, 2025

From the Desk of David Nicholas

The First Thanksgiving

As we head into Thanksgiving and Christmas, this is one of my favorite times of the year. It is a time of reflection and gratefulness for the many blessings we have been given. Just being born in this great country gives us opportunity that so many in the world do not have. As many around the world deal with war, famine, natural disaster and Christians are facing increased persecution, the privilege of living in the United States cannot be taken for granted.

I am reminded of the miracle of the Pilgrim's first Thanksgiving. When the first Pilgrams arrived in Massachusetts, the harsh New England winter was already well underway. They had no homes or shelter of any kind when they landed, before spring arrived, half of the 100 settlers had died. Emerging from a tragic winter, the Pilgrims were surprised when an Indian named Samoset approached them and greeted them in their own language, explaining to them that he had learned English from fishermen and traders. A week later, Samoset returned with a friend named Squanto, who lived with the Pilgrims and accepted their Christian faith. Squanto taught the Pilgrims how to live in the New World, and he and Samoset helped forge a long-lasting peace treaty between the Pilgrims and the Wampanoag Indians. Pilgrim Governor William Bradford described Squanto as “a special instrument sent of God for our
good . . . and never left us till he died.” This was truly a miracle.

That summer, the Pilgrims, still persevering in prayer and assisted by helpful Indians, reaped a bountiful harvest. As Pilgrim Edward Winslow affirmed, “God be praised, we had a good increase of Indian corn… by the goodness of God, we are…far from want.” The grateful Pilgrims therefore declared a three day feast in December 1621 to thank God and to celebrate with their Indian friends. America’s first Thanksgiving Festival. Ninety Wampanoag Indians joined the fifty Pilgrims for three days of feasting (which included shellfish, lobsters, turkey, corn bread, berries, and deer), of games (the young Pilgrim and Wampanoag men engaged in races, wrestling matches, and athletic events), and of prayer. This celebration and its accompanying activities were the origin of the holiday that Americans now celebrate each November.

In 1789 a congressional resolution was delivered to President George Washington to commemorate a day where Americans could “return to Almighty God their sincere thanks for the many blessings He had poured down upon them.” That year President George Washington issued the first federal Thanksgiving proclamation, declaring in 'part:

“Whereas it is the duty of all nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey His will, to be grateful for His benefits, and humbly to implore His protection and favor… Now, therefore, I do recommend and assign Thursday, the 26th day of November 1789… that we may all unite to render unto Him our sincere and humble thanks for His kind care and protection.”

I know for myself, I have much to be thankful for: my loving family, my amazing Nicholas Wealth team members and our wonderful Nicholas Wealth clients and ETF shareholders. I hope this Thanksgiving you and your family have a wonderful day filled with delicious food, joy and gratefulness to God for the many blessings He has bestowed on us.

A wild ride into Thanksgiving week

The market mayhem continued last week. Thursday and Friday were particularly epic and amazing to watch in real time. We thought we might have some calm after the federal shutdown ended and perhaps enjoy a peaceful few days leading up to Thanksgiving week. But the market had other plans due to rate cut jitters (more in the next section), a stale employment report and worries the AI bubble is about to burst. There was also concern that the market was too narrow and being driven by a few stocks.

These things aren’t new and have always been with us, but markets have brushed them aside in the rush to new records. A few weeks ago, no one cared about overvaluation — now it’s a concern. It appears fear has overcome greed (for the moment, at least), and negativity has taken hold. We were closing in on +20% for the year on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq has pushed past that mark, so some market players decided to play it safe and bank the gains.^1,2

The narrative was that investors appear to be rotating away from big tech and the economy is faltering.³ We’ve said many times that markets don’t rise in a linear fashion, with one close always higher than the last. We are having (and will continue to have) repricing and corrections, which is healthy for markets. If some of these nosebleed valuations bother investors, they will take gains and reinvest in undervalued parts of the market.

This process repeats itself with alarming certainty and regularity. But it just so happened to spook the herd last week, and we had some chaos. Our advice is to let it run its course, and if you have some cash set aside, now might be a good time to put at least some of it to work.

BLS releases September jobs numbers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report last Thursday after comments from the White House that some economic data that was due to be reported during the government shutdown may never be released. Although dated, the data seemed to confirm that the jobs market continued to deteriorate. We had ample proof via the ADP employment reports, so we weren’t completely blind, but this figure confirmed what we already knew.

The consensus for the September nonfarm payroll number was +50,000, with unemployment remaining steady at 4.3%. The actual number was +119,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%.⁴ Although the number beat consensus, markets viewed this news as the excuse the Fed needs to avoid cutting rates again at its next meeting.

It’s no secret that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump don’t get along.⁵ Trump has vowed to replace Powell in May with a new chairman more to his liking, while Powell seems to allow his dislike of Trump to dictate his actions. Trump wants a rate cut? Powell will likely do the opposite and choose not to cut. The problem is that if there is a pause, Powell will just dig in and not cut rates before he is replaced, even if the economy deteriorates further. That’s what the “rate cut jitters” were about last week — not just no rate cut in December, but possibly no cuts until next May or June.

Some at the Fed have signaled a cut may still be on the table for December.⁶ That glimmer of hope helped markets close out last week on an up note, but we’re still not convinced Powell will step up and set his feelings aside.⁷ Let’s see what the markets think as we head into a shortened Thanksgiving week and head into December.

Coming this week

• Data will start on Tuesday this week. We’ll get the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence and pending home sales.
• Hold on to your hat, because we’ll get a detonation of data dropped on Wednesday. The big one will be the first reading of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Right now, projections from the Atlanta Fed are for an annual GDP growth of 4.2%.⁸
• Wednesday will also feature personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal income and spending, and MBA mortgage applications. This mother lode of data gives the Fed a good look at growth and inflation, and it should go a long way in setting the tone for the Fed as it goes into its final meeting in December. Markets are in favor of a cut based on Fed officials’ comments on Friday, and Wednesday’s data dump could move markets significantly.
• Markets will be closed on Thursday and equity markets will be open until noon Central on Friday. The bond market will close an hour later at 1 p.m. Central that day.
• Third-quarter earnings are about done, with 95% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results.⁹ In all, 83% of companies have reported positive earnings per share (EPS) and 76% reported positive revenue. Earnings growth for the quarter is 13.4%, up from 11.8% in the second quarter.
• For the current quarter, 43 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 34 have issued positive. Valuation after this most recent market sell-off has declined but is still historically high. The S&P 500 forward 12-month price to earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 21.5 vs. 22.1 last quarter, much higher than the 5-year average (20.0) and 10-year average (18.7).

Sources:

¹ Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

² Yahoo! Finance. “NASDAQ Composite (ˆIXIC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

³ Rashika Singh, Rae Wee and Shashwat Chauhan. Reuters. Nov. 20, 2025. “Global tech shares falter as Nvidia-led rally stalls.” https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tech-shares-turbocharged-by-nvidias-stellar-earnings-2025-11-20/. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

⁴ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nov. 20, 2025. “The Employment Situation — September 2025.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

⁵ Andrea Shalal. Reuters. Nov. 19, 2025. “Trump again criticizes Fed’s Powell, says ‘I’d love to fire his ass.’” https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-says-he-would-love-fire-fed-chair-powell-2025-11-19/. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

⁶ Jennifer Schonberger. Nov. 21, 2025. “The 2 Fed comments that are boosting odds of a December rate cut.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-2-fed-comments-that-are-boosting-odds-of-a-december-rate-cut-170420327.html. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

⁷ CME Group. “FedWatch.” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

⁸ Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. “GDPNow.” https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

⁹ John Butters. FactSet. Nov. 21, 2025. “Earnings Insight.” https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_112125.pdf. Accessed Nov. 23, 2025.

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