How Market Cycles Can Impact Retirements?

The sequence of returns can play a role in your overall portfolio.

A thoughtful retirement strategy may help you pursue your many retirement goals. That strategy must consider many factors, and here are just a few: your income needs, the order of your withdrawals from taxable and tax-advantaged retirement accounts, the income tax implications of those withdrawals, and the sequence of return risk.

Just what is the sequence of return risk? In brief, it is the risk that market declines in the early years of retirement, combined with steady withdrawals, could reduce your portfolio’s outlook.

A recent CNBC article mentioned how the sequence of return risk can affect retirement accounts. It used a 20-year example – someone retiring in 2000 with $1 million in an account tracking the returns of the S&P 500, making withdrawals of $40,000 a year that increased 2% annually in view of inflation.

In 2000, a bear market began. The 37% pullback for the S&P 500 that occurred in 2000-02 would have reduced the $1 million account to about $470,000 by January 1, 2020, the end of the 20-year period. The balance reflects the annual withdrawals of $40,000 and the 2009-20 bull market.¹

Now, if the order of yearly returns were flipped, the portfolio would show a much different performance. At the end of the 20-year period, the retiree would have had more than $2.3 million in that account after the exact same schedule of income distributions.¹

It’s critical to point out that investing involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged index that is considered representative of the overall U.S. stock market. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index, and index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment.

In retirement, it is vital to address risk and volatility. You have less time and may have fewer opportunities to rebuild your savings. Fortunately, there are ways to address the challenge of the sequence of return risk and manage your portfolio risk while looking for opportunities.

If you have any questions, please reach out to us at [email protected] or (404) 890-5606.

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Investment advisory services are offered through Nicholas Wealth Management and Bluepath Capital. Nicholas Wealth Management and Bluepath Capital are separate entities and are not owned or controlled by WEG. This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax, or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

CITATIONS:

1. CNBC, January 21, 2022